With the top 3 teams in the English Premier League separated by just 2 points and a goal difference of just 6 goals, iSporter Anand Narayan analyses the chances of the top 3 teams to win the title based on their form, fixtures and the injury list.
The 39th game proposal, playoff for 4th place, introducing a quota on home grown players and lots more. These are all ideas to make the English Premier League (EPL) more interesting. After all it is getting boring isn’t it?
The same 4 teams battle for the trophy each year and the league is pretty much in the bag for one team with 5 or 6 games to go. Even when the league goes down to the wire like the last 2 seasons, it’s still between 2 teams. Yes. It is predictable. It does need a shot in the arm.
Or does it???
A sneak peek at this year’s league table so far tells a completely different story….
| Team Played | Played | Goal Difference | Points |
| Manchester United | 29 | 43 | 63 |
| Chelsea | 28 | 39 | 61 |
| Arsenal | 29 | 37 | 61 |
*Table as of Mar 13, 2010 before the kick off time
The top 3 teams separated by just 2 points and 6 goals!! So who is in a better position? With the way this season has panned out so far, venturing any guess is probably not the best idea. But let’s take some time out to study each of the top 3’s strengths and thus evaluate their relative chances of success this season.
Manchester United:
As of now they sit comfortably at the top of the league with a 2 point lead over the others and a better goal difference, though Chelsea have a game in hand on them. But can they finish the job?
Form: United go into this weekend’s game with a slightly mixed formbook. While they have steam rolled past AC Milan in the Champions League both home and away, their league form still is a bit worrisome. A sound thumping of Arsenal and then Portsmouth raised hopes of United running away with the trophy, but a creditable draw against Villa (with 10 men) and a loss against Everton set the cat among the pigeons. A laboured draw against Wolves last time out would not have done much to calm nerves in the United dressing room
Fixture List: The table below gives a list of fixtures for all 3 teams this season. On first glance, United have three major problems in playing Chelsea and Liverpool at home and then Manchester City away. All 3 fixtures have traditionally not been the most successful for United and could very well decide where the trophy lands this season.
Players: Wayne Rooney is fast maturing into the best player on the planet. He has annihilated his target of 30 goals for the season and with a maximum of 14 more games possible for him this season, he could well match or break Ronaldo’s tally of 42. But any forced absence for him would be the main factor on Sir Alex’s mind. Against Wolves, United without Rooney looked about as sharp as a baton.
On the defensive front, Vidic and Ferdinand have started very few games together this season and Sir Alex would be hoping they would remain fit for the rest of the run in.
Injuries: In a time of defensive crisis, the last thing you need is another defender falling to injury, but that’s exactly what has happened. Wes Brown is a long term absentee with a new injury.
Meanwhile Michael Owen, Hargreaves and John O’Shea will probably not feature again this season.
Chances: It’s a bit extreme but very close to the truth to say that United’s hopes rest squarely on the shoulders of one man – Wayne Rooney. If he remains fit and firing, United could well walk away with a 4th consecutive EPL trophy. They have the experience and the knowledge that it can be done having won it for the last three years. But this could yet be their closest run in.
Verdict: Title Favourites (Purely because they have done it so many times before)
The Fixture List
| Chelsea | Arsenal | Manchester United | |
| 1 |
West Ham(H) | ||
| 2 |
Blackburn (A) | Hull(A) | Fulham (H) |
| 3 |
Portsmouth (A) |
West Ham (H) | Liverpool (H) |
| 4 |
Aston Villa (H) |
Birmingham (A) | Bolton (A) |
| 5 |
Man Utd (A) |
Wolves (H) |
Chelsea (H) |
| 6 |
Bolton (H) |
Tottenham (A) | Blackburn (A) |
| 7 |
Tottenham (A) | Wigan (A) | Man City (A) |
| 8 |
Stoke (H) |
Man City (H) | Tottenham (H) |
| 9 |
Liverpool (A) | Blackburn (A) |
Sunderland (A) |
| 10 | Wigan (H) |
Fulham (H) |
Stoke (H) |
Chelsea:
Chelsea have been on route to winning the title a number of times this season only to fall back into the chasing pack every time.
Form: Chelsea have been in a up-down form situation of late. In the league, some comprehensive victories over Sunderland and Birmingham were followed by sluggish performances in the draw with Hull City and the loss to Manchester City. The scandal surrounding captain John Terry has failed to die down and questions about whether his head is in the right place are proving to be cause for concern.
Fixture List: On first glance, Chelsea have only 3 potential difficult ties. The home game against Villa and the away games to United and Liverpool. But history suggests that they should pick up a majority of these 9 points and with new manager Carlo Ancelotti used to title run-ins with AC Milan, Chelsea would be a substantial bet to pull this off. However, their tendency to then drop points against teams lower in the table could come back to haunt them with games against the relegation strugglers Portsmouth and Stoke.
Players: Drogba has once again been in the thick of everything good for Chelsea this season. The renaissance of Anelka and Malouda under Ancelotti has been an added bonus. With Sturridge also showing his ability in the F.A. Cup, going forward, Chelsea look most dangerous.
However, defensively, they depend a lot on the leadership of Terry and their campaign would depend a lot on him having a better game than he did against Manchester City.
Injuries: Bosingwa, Essien and Cole are long term absentees, but in Mikel, Ballack, Zhirkov, Beletti, Ferreira etc Chelsea have ample cover. However, the injury to Cech along with the recent injury to Hilario could be a cause for concern. Young keeper Turnbull is not tested at this level and unless Cech is back soon, this could be their undoing.
Chances: The team has enough experience to lift itself out of any crisis and fight through it, but this same team has also shown the tendency to not have a plan B when Plan A doesn’t work.
They have the talent and the grit to win the league if they can eliminate unnecessary errors.
Verdict: 2nd Place.
Arsenal:
In his last interview Arsene Wenger said his team had been buried by the media a number of times this season but were still there so he believes in his team. You will find it hard to argue with that.
Form: Since the consecutive thumping losses to United and Chelsea all but ended their season, Arsenal have won four straight matches while their rivals have both dropped points. As a result they find themselves well in the fight for the title.
Fixture List: The fixtures for Arsenal are by far the easiest among the top 3, atleast on paper. Their only difficult game appears to be the match against a Manchester City side who have already thrashed them once in this competition. But with the match being held at the Emirates, Arsenal would feel confident of exacting some measure of revenge.
Players: Cesc Fabregas may not be a shoo in for the Spanish national team but is very much the heart beat of the Arsenal team. Apart from this the return of Bendtner has given them an additional striking option. (Inspite of his horror game against Burnley in front of goal!) However, the main man for Arsenal has to be the little Russian magician Arshavin. Nasri’s form against Porto in the Champions League would be cause for optimism for Wenger. With the football they play, Arsenal have enough players who can unlock any defense in the league without problems.
Injuries: Aaron Ramsey’s horrible injury could act as a galvanizing force to bind the team together like never before. However, a swift return for Fabregas would be more important from Arsenal’s point of view.
Chances: Their chances depend solely on how well the young players handle the pressure of being at the sharp end of the table at the end of the season. They have collapsed in previous seasons and it would be interesting to see if they have learnt from their failures.
Verdict: A close 3rd
So there goes. That’s how I see things panning out. What do you think??
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Jigar Mehta
said:
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... arshavinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn the russian class scoressssssssssss superb class |
Jigar Mehta
said:
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... offsideeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee |
Jigar Mehta
said:
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... bendtnerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr |
Jigar Mehta
said:
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... atlast thank you bendtnerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr |
Asif Khan
said:
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... It was scrappy but at least we won!! Bendtner is doing his best to become likeable but he needs to score a lot more goals in the next few weeks before he becomes a Gunner favorite |
Asif Khan
said:
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... MACHEDAAAAAA was a one match wonder and is lost since then, Bendtner has been there for a while and by the looks of it, will be there |
Sohel Topiwala
said:
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... U r spot on. Great one. I had thot of writing a similar piece. Ur a man of vision and class. Well done and kudos to u. Im an arsenal fan but ur analysis is spot on. But fingers crossed...Sports can be quite unpredictable and everybody loves an underdog. |
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